S&P 500
May 11 : 1342.08
June 8 : 1279.56
July 7 : 1353.22
August 4 : 1200.07
June 8 : 1279.56
July 7 : 1353.22
August 4 : 1200.07
Treasuries
2 year
May 11 : 0.55June 8 : 0.38
July 7 : 0.47
August 4 : 0.26
10 Year
May 11 : 3.18June 8 : 2.94
July 7 : 3.16
August 4 : 2.42
30 Year
May 11 : 4.29June 8 : 4.19
July 7 : 4.38
August 4 : 3.69
Inflation Expectations
2 year inflation swaps
May 11 : 2.16June 8 : 2.01
July 7 : 1.92
August 4 : 1.65
5 Year TIPS Breakeven rate
May 11 : 2.19June 8 : 2.02
July 7 : 2.10
August 4 : 1.79
10 Year TIPS spread
May 11 : 2.42June 8 : 2.27
July 7 : 2.49
August 4 : 2.22
30 Year TIPS spread
June 8 : 2.45
July 7 : 2.67
August 4 : 2.58
Bloomberg Commodity Index
May 11 : 1672.35June 8 : 1713.68
July 7 : 1717.93
August 4 : 1660.55
EUR USD
May 11 : 1.4249June 8 : 1.4577
July 7 : 1.4351
August 4 : 1.4105
(Data from bloomberg.com)
Expectations have fallen dramatically the last couple weeks. Fed intervention of some kind is likely, but we still don't exactly know what the Fed's goal is. Will they react to past inflation rates? Commodities? Job growth? Financial markets? Inflation expectations? Only the FOMC knows. We also don't know how they'll intervene exactly. Hopefully they'll try something more flexible than QE2 was.
Here are predictions I made a couple of months ago. I think they've held up pretty well. The only thing I was off on was underestimating the importance of Europe's debt troubles. Although Europe's woes are also caused by tight money (the European Central Bank seems more concerned with what's good for Germany than what's good for Europe as a whole), there's no reason they should be lowering U.S. NGDP unless the Fed doesn't respond to higher dollar demand... but the Fed isn't responding (at least not until things get really bad), so Europe's woes are lowering U.S. NGDP.
Expectations have fallen dramatically the last couple weeks. Fed intervention of some kind is likely, but we still don't exactly know what the Fed's goal is. Will they react to past inflation rates? Commodities? Job growth? Financial markets? Inflation expectations? Only the FOMC knows. We also don't know how they'll intervene exactly. Hopefully they'll try something more flexible than QE2 was.
Here are predictions I made a couple of months ago. I think they've held up pretty well. The only thing I was off on was underestimating the importance of Europe's debt troubles. Although Europe's woes are also caused by tight money (the European Central Bank seems more concerned with what's good for Germany than what's good for Europe as a whole), there's no reason they should be lowering U.S. NGDP unless the Fed doesn't respond to higher dollar demand... but the Fed isn't responding (at least not until things get really bad), so Europe's woes are lowering U.S. NGDP.
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