S&P 500
April 27 : 1357
May 7 : 1347.32
May 11 : 1342.08
May 18 : 1340.68
Treasuries
2 year
April 27: 0.64
May 7 : 0.59
May 11 : 0.55
May 18 : 0.55
10 Year
April 27 : 3.35
May 7 : 3.22
May 11 : 3.15
May 18 : 3.18
30 Year
April 27 : 4.45
May 7 : 4.32
May 11 : 4.30
May 18 : 4.29
Inflation Expectations
2 year inflation swaps
April 27 : 2.65
May 7 : 2.62
May 11 : 2.32
May 18 : 2.16
5 Year TIPS Breakeven rate
April 27 : 2.35
May 7 : 2.43
May 11 : 2.24
May 18 : 2.19
10 Year TIPS spread
April 27 : 2.6
May 7 : 2.57
May 11 : 2.45
May 18 : 2.42
30 Year TIPS spread
April 27 : 2.68
May 7 : 2.67
May 11 : 2.59
May 18 : 2.53
Bloomberg Commodity Index
April 27 : 1766.98
May 7 : 1728.18
May 11 : 1638.78
May 18 : 1672.35
EUR USD
May 7 : 1.486
May 11 : 1.4197
May 18 : 1.4249
(Data from bloomberg.com)
Overall asset prices are signaling NGDP growth expectations are similar to what they were last week. Lower inflation expectations might make the Fed more comfortable in easing policy (through more QE, lower interest on reserves, inflation level targeting, etc.) but it's still hard to see additional easing until things get much worse. More than anything else, the issue may be putting off "tightening" policy (through raising rates or reducing balance sheet size), but that is a long way off and it can't be seen in fed funds futures.
It's also getting harder and harder to believe the fed is concerned with anything other than year over year growth rates; that's not a good sign if you're looking for a strong recovery.
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